Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints pick Preview prediction statistics to know for Monday Night Football

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Prior to this season, only one team in the 17-year history of the NFC South had ever won the division in consecutive seasons. That team was the , who won the South each season from 2013 through 2015. This year, the have matched that feat, sprinting out Niklas Kronwall Jersey to an 11-2 record after topping the South with an 11-5 mark a year ago.The Saints are in pole position for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and things look especially good for them after the lost to the on Monday night. They can't quite wrap things up if they defeat the Panthers on Monday, but they can come pretty close while at the same time dealing a near-death blow to Carolina's own playoff chances. More NFL New Orleans comes into the game having rebounded from a dispiriting Thursday night lo s to the by avenging their Week 1 lo s to the division rival , seemingly getting their offense back on track with 17 points in the fourth quarter on their way to victory. The Panthers, meanwhile, have lost five consecutive games, the last four of which have been by just one score. In the proce s, they've blown their solid playoff positioning and are now on the outside of the postseason picture, looking in.Can Carolina get back on track? Will New Orleans continue its winning ways? We'll have these answers by the end of the night. What we'll detail below, is what you should be looking out for when the teams take the field. When the Panthers have the ballLet's talk about .Pigeonholed last year as a pure pa s-catching back and speed runner, McCaffrey averaged just 12.3 touches per game. Those touches were often far too obvious, as the Panthers liked to have on the field a bunch in order to provide a power, downhill element in the running game. McCaffrey played just south of 70 percent of the snaps, but he rarely touched the ball in the red zone (12 rushes, 11 receptions) and was not given enough opportunities to establish himself as the kind of versatile runner who can make plays everywhere, and not just to the edges of the formation.This year has been far different. McCaffrey's average is up to 20.4 touches per game, and he has been on the field for 97.5 percent of Carolina's offensive snaps. And McCaffrey's not just gotten more volume. He's also been far more efficient explosive than he was a year ago. Among the 42 players with 100-plus carries this season, McCaffrey ranks eighth in both yards per carry and Football Outsiders' Succe s Rate. Last year, he ranked 34th out of 47 in yards per carry and 22nd in Succe s Rate. Additionally, McCaffrey has 27 plays of 15-plus yards this season (14 catches, 13 runs), compared to just 18 such plays a year ago. That's an additional 15-yard play per Dennis Cholowski Jersey game.McCaffrey also already has 48 touches in the red zone (38 rushes, 10 receptions), and he has scored on 11 of those plays. His effectivene s in close has helped give Carolina the eighth-best red zone touchdown rate (65.3 percent) in the NFL this season, according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have one of the NFL's toughest run defenses and have shut down several stars on the ground this season, but they have also been extremely vulnerable to pa ses to players out of the backfield. New Orleans ranks 30th in DVOA on pa ses to running backs, and has allowed 70 catches for 540 yards and four scores to players at the position. Getting McCaffrey matched up on any linebacker or safety is an almost a sured win for the Panthers offense on any given snap -- even against linebackers with speed line those on the Saints' defense.Unfortunately for the Panthers, appears to be in a bit of a rut right now, presumably due to the shoulder injury he's been battling that has been rumored to nece sitate surgery during the offseason. Cam Newton6-2 Start5 Straight L'sComp177127Att263179Comp %67.3%70.9%Yds18931371YPA7.207.66TD159TD %5.70%5.03%INT48INT %1.52%4.47%QB Rtg100.891.3Newton's target chart has been re-arranged a bit throughout this five-game streak, with going down for the year with yet another foot injury and youngsters D.J. Moore and vaulting ahead of Niklas Kronwall Men Jersey in the pecking order. It's been good for the future of the Panthers' franchise to see Moore and Samuel emerge as more viable options for Newton, but along with their propensity for big plays has come some growing pains as they and Newton learn each other's strengths and weakne ses. (You might remember seeing Newton throw the 5-10 Samuel a couple back-shoulder fades near the end zone the last two weeks, with one getting intercepted and the other falling incomplete. Those are the kinds of throws that should be made to Olsen or Funche s, not Samuel.) The New Orleans pa s defense has improved a lot from the start of the season through the past few weeks, as the secondary has solidified itself around -- for the most part. Teams will still occasionally pick on , but safeties and are playing well, while P.J. Williams is improving (somewhat) in the slot.When the Saints have the ballThe Panthers have given up more than 30 points per game during this five-game losing streak. The Saints, until getting shut down by the Cowboys a few weeks back, seemed like they could put up 30 in their sleep. They practically sleepwalked through the first three quarters of their win over the Bucs last week, but seemed to wake up when they hung 17 on Gustav Nyquist Jersey the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. This week sets up well for them to really get back on track.Carolina has the NFL's 29th-ranked pa s defense this season, per Football Outsiders' DVOA, with particular weakne ses on pa ses to the perimeter. They've not been good at stopping either short (24th) or deep (29th) pa ses. Corners and rank 107th and 99th, respectively, in pa ser rating allowed among the 152 players who have been targeted at least 30 times in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. This is the first time these two teams will play each other this season, but the Panthers have a very poor tracking record of slowing down New Orleans' most important offensive players. In five career Robert Mastrosimone Men Jersey regular season and postseason games against Carolina, has posted receiving lines of 5-78-1, 5-68, 7-87-1, 5-70-1, and 8-131. In those game five games, is 139 of 189 for 1,615 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions, which works out to an absurd 113.5 pa ser rating. And the Saints are 4-1 in those games. was shut down by the Panthers in the playoff matchup last year, but he also exploded for 126 yards and two scores on 14 touches in the teams' Week 13 matchup.Carolina does not get the kind of relentle s pre sure that generally bothers Brees, and especially does not tend to get that pre sure up the middle, where it is most likely to effect him. (This is what the Cowboys did a few weeks back, with and cleaning up off the pre sure generated by , , and company up the middle.) is a fantastic player but he's also generated pre sure on only 10 percent of his pa s-rushing snaps this season, a slightly below-average rate for a full-time interior defensive lineman.With Brees likely to have time to sit and step up in the pocket, it seems incredibly likely that he'll be able to pick the Carolina defense apart. When throwing from a clean pocket this season, Brees has an otherworldly 130.8 pa ser rating, per Pro Football Focus, having completed 76 percent of his pa ses with 27 touchdowns and no picks. If you don't get pre sure on him, he is not going to make mistakes, and you are going to lose. Period. (It probably doesn't help Carolina's chances that Brees has the NFL's best pa ser rating on deep pa ses and they have allowed the sixth-most deep pa sing yards in the league so far this season.) The Panthers' run defense has been better than their pa s unit this year, but it may not matter much here. The Saints are one of those teams that can use the short pa sing game as an extension of the run game, swinging the ball out to Kamara or working the Xavier Ouellet Men Jersey screen game with , and the Panthers have -- stop me if you've heard this already -- struggled against short pa ses all season. On throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage, Carolina has allowed a 108.1 pa ser rating, per Sports Info Solutions, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Given all the Panthers' defensive weakne ses and how well they line up with what the Saints do well, this one seems to tip heavily in favor of New Orleans.Prediction: Saints 36, Panthers 20
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